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Quo Vadis Cowan?

Quo Vadis Cowan?

Cowan is a federal seat in WA, north of Perth's CBD, which is currently held by Ms Azza Mahmoud Fawzi Hosseini Ali el Serougi aka Anne Aly (ALP). Ms Aly won the seat in 2016 after a controversial recount on a very narrow margin. Ms Aly decided to be sworn into federal office on the Koran.

As of this morning (23 May 2019) the primary votes according to the AEC Tally Room are as follows:

COOPER, Mark The Greens WA 6,961 
ALY, Anne Australian Labor Party 28,482
WESTCOTT, Peter United Australia Party  1,792 
LEBRASSE, Andre Australian Christians 1,688 
MUNDY, Sheila Pauline Hanson's One Nation 4,031
BEDFORD, Paul J Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 1,244
STEWART, Isaac Liberal  29,584

Assuming the majority of Greens voters preference Labor over Liberal and the majority of UAP, AC, PHON and SFF preference Liberals over Labor, the Two Candidate Preferred vote should stand at around LIB 38,339 vs ALP 35,443.

However, the AEC shows ALP 37,265 vs LIB 36,517 in the TCP count.

How believable is this? Would half the Christians, Shooters, Hansonites and Palmer voters preference an Islamist? We checked their HTV cards. Except Greens, all minors preferenced Libs ahead of Labs.

 

Further, five days after close of ballots, the AEC still doesn’t show the votes cast in the Early Voting Centre at 57 Shenton Ave in Joondalup. Have these votes been lost? Are they held back for a ‘special’ purpose?


What is happening in Cowan, again?

1 Comment | Leave a comment

If YVA had not interfered with the Anti Azza campaign in Cowan the result would have been closer. I hear Landsdale swing over 3% against her.
From far away I am all for a question to AEC well done on your research.
Joe

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